Written by Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) – This morning
What matters in the United States and global markets today
Written by Mike Dolan, editor, man, financial industry and financial markets
Just a threat to the commercial markets that raise a war, but they now have to deal with the real thing, as it raises the tariffs on mineral imports today and revenge comes quickly. I will discuss Gyrations on the continuous market below.
Today, I will take a closer look at the “reaction function” of US President Donald Trump towards the fluctuations of the financial market and consider whether it might affect politics decisions to move forward.
Market accurate today
* Trump’s increasing tariff for all American steel and alumnumport has entered into force on Wednesday. * TSMC has developed the American chip designers Nvidia Microdevices Advance and Broadcom about taking risks in a joint project working on Intel factories, according to four toxic sources in the matter. * Demokraatit opposition -supporting business party in Greenland, which prefers a slow approach to independence from Denmark, Trump’s parliamentary elections to control the island. * The United States approved on Tuesday the resumption of military intelligence intelligence with Ukraine after Kiev said that it is possible to support Washington’s proposal to stop Warwith for 30 days, according to the two countries in a joint statement. * Republican -controlled US House of Representatives acknowledged the StopGAP bill to maintain federal agencies on Friday, and avoid partial closure starting this weekend.
Introductory tremors
It was another day at the S& P500 after a volatile session in Wall Street, although Trump Trump was a 50 % tariff late against Canada, horses somewhat calmed down.
The possibility of a temporary ceasefire in the Russia and Krin war also sparked some satisfaction, even if Ukraine is the only aspect of the deal that has been circulated in the United States so far.
And now the drinkers market is awaiting a bit to see the latest US consumer price report, although last month inflation is next to the market point and the federal reserve – as both are more cautious than what is descended in the Pike.
The main address and basic inflation will have a mark in February, with the latter drop to less than 3 %.
Federal Reserve officials during the traditional public obfuscation period before the meeting next week. The markets do not expect more mitigation until June, as the central bank will need to analyze the impact of customs tariffs and economic shrinkage signals.
With a 10 -year auction today, the US Treasury was the first thing this morning, while the dollar reserves the risks above the lowest new level on Tuesday for this year. However, the credit differences of companies with high return have reached the highest level for a period of 6 months at 322 basis points yesterday.
The VIX index also declined a little than the last levels, while stocks in Europe and Asia were more stable on the day of trading in the United States.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar remained significantly calm, although the tariff that is kicking, and a new prime minister in office and reduced the expected rate of Canada Bank’s interest later today.
Investors believe that an 87 % chance in BOC will reduce the main policy price by 25 basis points from 3 %, which is the latest after two percentage of mitigation since June.
Looking at all market fluctuations in recent weeks, let us now think about whether any financial market is still able to return to the agenda of the US President.
The “stock soldiers” proves the largest opponent of the Trump market
“Bond Bond Peres” and “police officers in the currency” did not really retreat on the Trump agenda, leaving the shares of anxious as the only financial market that contradicts the new economy of the American president.
Enter the “stock forces”.
The Trump team has advanced to the economic trench war this week, as the president doubles Canadian definitions just the collapse of stocks since its inauguration. But logical stocks can be transferred after calculating political differentiation.
It was not only a routine definition of Trump to the stock market as a decisive measure of his success in the past, but the high loss in the market value this month may undermine the confidence of the rich and sensitive American families towards the “effect of wealth”, critical consumption and growth.
Trump and his deputies have tried to face the risks and economic risks at the end of last week, passing through the turmoil as an inevitable temporary overlooking, given the scope of changing their radical policy.
Trump’s comment may have been the most news about the battle that reveals: “I do not look at the stock market.”
This unpopular opinion – coming from a president who has previously used our contributions as a weather power force – is unprecedented for investors.
Many have assumed that they have a “Trump situation”, mainly the new administration’s willingness to slow down or back down from the sabotage spending agenda if the stock markets are available.
Once again in the union’s case letter to Congress in February 2020, Trump said of the stock market: “All of these millions of people who have 401 (k) of pensions are much better than they had done before with increases of 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 % and even.”
So far, the president has not yet recognized the opposite of some of that paper wealth, despite the 8-12 % losses published by three major Wall Street indexes since I came back to the office in January – with a loss of about $ 5 trillion in the market value.
High and height
But with the depletion of work confidence in a tariff and uncertainty in jobs, including between small companies that support traditional operation, investors at home and abroad have a great smell. Wall Street and global investment homes are accelerating to reduce the recommended weights in American stocks and reduce the growth expectations in the United States to boot.
“The uncertainty is high and the rise in the main street, and for many reasons,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist in the National Independent Business Union (NFIB), who recorded a morale survey in February.
The major global investors fear the potential inflationary effects of the Trump trade, its business and diplomatic turmoil. This must be worrying for the president, given the political influence of high inflation on the previous administration of Jo Biden.
“I think that if we all become more national, I do not say this is bad, as you know, it resonates with me … (but) there will be a rise in inflation,” said Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock on Monday.
Not only is local investors’ confidence, which must be worried about the amount of foreign investment that Wall Street pumped in recent years. This is particularly applied to European funds, as many of them can find opportunities emerging in the country in the cheapest stock markets.
The confrontation with the stock market is certainly not what most people expected after the elections.
Many are betting that the so -called bond decision – which faces the volatile cabinet market and the high government borrowing costs – will lead back against unprofible tax reduction plans, high deficit and inflationary tariffs.
After that, with the installation of the threats of raising the customs tariffs, the dollar rose at first sharply, and some felt that this step of the currency will neutralize the impact of import taxes on foreign companies that sell in America.
However, commercial tensions and living families, as well as the possibility of an economic shrinkage, witnessed that the shares are crying instead, even with treasury revenues and dollar tail.
Some speculate that Scott Payette, the Smart Treasury Secretary on the market, persuaded Trump that the treasury – and the dollar with them – is a greater victory given what the administration wants. If this is true, you can say that the administration has published two successes from the three main macro markets – which may be satisfied with them now.
But the decline in the stock market in the snowball will resonately resonate with the Trump base. And if it stimulates the wider stagnation, it may be packaged with a much larger punch than bonds or currencies.
Today’s scheme
Commercial wars are not in one direction, and the revenge of Trump’s tariff movements is to attract rapid responses that amplify the economic impact of the president’s actions. The growing customs tariffs entered all steel and aluminum imports in the United States on Wednesday, as it attracted a counter -tariff from the European Union with 26 billion euros (28 billion dollars) of American goods from next month. Trump initially threatened Canada to double the duties to 50 %, but after that, Ontario suspended the moves to impose additional 25 % fees on electricity exports to the states of Minnesota, Michigan and New York.
Today’s events to watch
* Consumer price report in February, Federal Budget in February
* Canada Bank’s policy decision
* European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, chief economist at the European Central Bank Philip Lin, and the ruler of France, Francois Feliroy de Galhao, speak in Frankfurt
* The US Treasury is selling $ 39 billion of notes 10 years
* American companies profits: Adobe, Crown Castle
* Germany Advisor Olaf Schools and European Union Council Chairman Antonio Costa held a press conference in Berlin
* G7 foreign ministers gather in Quebec
The views expressed are the views of the author. It does not reflect the opinions of Reuters news, which, according to the principles of confidence, is committed to integrity, independence and liberation from bias.
(Written by Mike Dolan; Editing by Anna Sizymanski)
